Economists from the World Trade Organization (WTO) forecast that global goods trade will be up 2.7% in 2024, up slightly from the previous estimate of 2.6%.
The volume of world merchandise trade is likely to increase by 3.0% in 2025; however, rising geopolitical tensions and increased economic policy uncertainty continue to pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.
In their October 2024 update of "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics," the WTO economists note that global merchandise trade turned upwards in the first half of 2024 with a 2.3% year-on-year increase, which should be followed by further moderate expansion in the rest of the year and in 2025.
Inflation by the middle of 2024 had fallen sufficiently to allow central banks to cut interest rates. Lower inflation should raise real household incomes and boost consumer spending, while lower interest rates should raise investment spending by firms.
Source: WTO